I have a chicken or the egg dilemma for you. This one involves talking heads and the consumer public they feed. My specific example will stem from the NFL and sports media. (This is gonna be fun, right?!)
Some of you know, I’m a Dallas Cowboys’ fan. [insert Jerruah Jones and the Devil joke here]. But honestly, it’s not my fault (entirely). I became a Cowboys’ fan by birth, not by choice. Anywho, the NFL is currently experiencing their “free-agency” portion of the calendar year. This is when all the players (and their agents) with expiring contracts barter with the franchises to sign new contracts. It’s a feeding frenzy, and by nature it leads to a frenzy of ridiculous “hot takes” and “not takes” from all the talking heads who are paid to cover the NFL and its teams…as well as all the fans.
Stupidity becomes as prevalent as tissue at a snot party.
But whose fault is it? The fans or the media? Allow me to fill in a bit more of the Dallas Cowboys background. The team is owned by Jerry Jones and operated almost entirely by him and his progeny. The Jones’s have a distinct philosophy when it comes to free-agency: Don’t. Just don’t. Don’t participate in the frenzy. And there is plenty of academic research suggesting this is the best strategy. The highest-bidder nature of free-agency ensures that all the best players will be overpaid. The NFL features a salary cap that ensures each team spends a relatively equal amount of money on its players. (You don’t have to spend all of the cap, but you can’t spend over…unless you barrow against your future as is the American way. But eventually all debts must be paid. Blah, blah, blah.)
At the same time, the NFL is typically not driven by science or statistics or research. In many ways, it is driven by testosterone and money (I know, surprising). No doubt a huge part of the Jones’s actions are driven by them thinking they are the smartest people in the room. And since the only qualification for being an expert when it comes to owning an NFL franchise is being rich enough to buy one, Jerry Jones certainly qualifies as an expert. To his credit, he bought the Cowboys when they were in the crapper and has transformed them into the most valuable sports franchise in the world. In the world.
This time of year, a standard script plays out in Cowboy Land. Jerry Jones says crazy stuff because he’s a crazy old man who loves the attention. The fans go nuts with anticipation that the Jones’s will finally spend money in free agency “to make the team better.” Free agency goes over with the splendor and glory of a baked chicken at a backyard BBQ. Everyone freaks out and starts spewing doom and gloom narratives about how the season is over. Months later the season begins, and everything said and done during free agency is forgotten (for the most part).
Statistically speaking, the Cowboys have won 36 regular season games over the last three years. Only one team has done better with 37 wins, the Kansas City Chiefs (who also happen to have won two super bowls over those three years). Yesterday I saw an article highlighting the two biggest losers of free-agency this year. Any guesses as to who those two teams were? (Aren’t you the smart one.) Yep, the Dallas Cowboys and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Coincidence? Maybe. Or perhaps losing free agency is key to winning games in the NFL. You see, the teams with the most money to spend in free agency are by nature the worst teams…or the teams lucky enough to land good players for a low price, and then smart enough to not overpay old players who are past their prime. But this is where things get super tricky.
Fans want action during the off season. They want some narrative to believe in. They want reasons to expose their heart and soul to the vagaries of NFL fandom for one more losing season. Doing anything is better than doing nothing! Can’t you see, Jerry? The hated Philadelphia Eagles (Cowboys forever, Eagles never) are making bold moves. They’re adding players. They are spending money. They’re “getter better!” They are “winning free-agency!”
This is the exact language heard on every sports radio station, podcast, and streaming outlet. The talking heads yammer on about how stupid Jerry Jones and the Cowboys are and how smart Howie Roseman and the Eagles are. The only arguments are based on moves made in March…and the games are played in September. (Never mind we have no idea if the moves will be beneficial or detrimental.) So, I put the question to you, dear readers. Does it matter more to win free agency in March or to win games when the season finally starts.
I’m seriously asking.
The Eagles won free-agency last year as well and they finished the season by losing six of their last seven games. But no one remembers that (except the Eagles fans of course). The fans have an excuse. They want a new narrative to give them hope. Change for the sake of change. “We got a bad break this year. We’ll do better next year,” won’t cut it. But what about the media? They should know better right? They’ve tracked these teams for years, sometimes decades. But they behave similarly as the fans. What gives, you ask?
The media are have dueling motivations, just like the players. Sure, they want to be good at their jobs. They want to win just like the players do. But they also want to make money. Sometimes winning makes you the most money. But we all know sometimes selling out makes you more. Feeding into the narratives gets clicks. Clicks equal money. There lies the central problem facing media and its consumers in today’s world. Regurgitating and reinforcing the narratives people already believe, or are predisposed toward, is lucrative. This principle is as true in sports media as it is in all fields of media.
Breaking a true story can be powerful. But making a false one can often be more powerful, and is exponentially easier. Occasionally, you’ll get busted. But it’ll blow over. Just don’t apologize. People will forget.
Now, in March, the Cowboys have several terminal problems. They’re bleeding out on their offensive line. Talent is fleeing the building. Their defensive mastermind has defected to the Washington D.C. Commanders, and taken half the defense with him. The Jones’s are choosing to be blind to the way free-agency works. Their quarterback is entering a lame duck season, along with their head coach. They’re gonna tank leading to an implosion in 2025, if the world doesn’t end first.
This time of year, my favorite quote is a classic from Jim Belushi in the Blues Brothers:
I ran outta gas. I had a flat tire. I didn't have enough money for cab fare. My tux didn't come back from the cleaners. An old friend came in from outta town. Someone stole my car. There was an earthquake, a terrible flood, locusts. It wasn't my fault! I swear to God!
I don’t know. I guess it doesn’t fit perfectly. I’m not trying to make excuses for Jerry Jones or the Cowboys or anyone else. I just think the overreaction is funny—the passion put into overselling something that clearly can’t be true. And yet…so many are absolutely convinced it’s the God’s honest truth. Or at least it is until September.
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